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A Bold Prediction – How many total wins will Scottie Scheffler have this year?

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Scottie Scheffler has blossomed into a household name in the golfing community, seemingly in a short amount of time. Heading in The Master this past week, Scottie rose to the rankings as the number one golfer globally. An honor that not only demands elite performance on the golf course but consistency to continue the ascent.

How long will it last?

With his recent success, one may be asking how long he will continue to play at this level. The PGA Tour consists of 47 FedEx Cup events for the 2021-2022 season for those who do not know the information right off hand. In each tournament, golfers gain points based on finishing position. Any additional events added by the PGA Tour offer the opportunity for extra points increases. So far this year, three events have been added, bringing the final number to 50. The majority of Tour members do not play every event. Most members only play about 20 or 30 events in any given season. This could make projections challenging, but we will estimate how many more trophies Scottie Scheffler will hoist before the season ends.

Great start

First, let’s talk about how the season has gone for Scottie and then break into what lies ahead. In this season, 13 events are already in the books, including The Masters, where the Texas native shakingly 4-putted to earn his green jacket and place in history. With the win at Agusta National Golf Course, the reigning world number one recorded his 7th top 10 finish of the year.

 

No missed cuts in how long??

While these numbers are impressive, the recent success is an upward trend that should have you looking for his name near the top of leaderboards at almost any event. It all started with the WM Phoenix open. Over the last five events, Scotty has not missed a cut, but in four of the five, he has been in the top 10. It gets better; three of those top 10 appearances were wins. With wins at the Houston Open through a three-hole playoff and outright victories at both Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Masters, the outlook on the future is stammering. Not to mention those are simply the wins in the last five rounds. Outside of the year’s first tournament at TPC Summerlin, Scottie has not missed a cut and boasts a season with only four starts that were above 25th place.

Could he break the record?

There is no denying how Scottie Scheffler has reached the world’s number one status, but what does the rest of 2022 look like? Judging his recent results, one will find it tough to assume he will continue to build out in the same pattern. If that is the case, Scottie will win 60% of the remaining tournaments on the PGA schedule. That would equate to 20 more wins over the remaining 34 events and a season total of 23. For all the historians out there, that feat would knock Byron Nelson from first place for his 18-win season in 1945. It would also mean that Scottie would have to participate in all events until the end of the season, which we already stated is not the PGA norm.

Data sets

To make this prediction, we will use two sets of data: The number of events remaining for the season and Scottie’s win percentage in events he has participated in.

To approach it fairly, I will only assume that The Master’s Champion will compete in as many events as the average PGA Tour Member; let’s predict 25 events overall. From this number, I consider that Scottie has already competed in 13 events and opted not to compete in an additional 15. With 22 events remaining on the PGA Tour schedule, Scottie would need to participate in over half of them for this prediction.

Now we can partner this information with the overall win percentage of the season. Of the 13 events played this year, Scottie has won 3 events, all coming in the last six weeks and averaging a 23% win percentage. If we assume similar results from the season, we can expect at least three more wins for the 25-year-old.

Crazy win percentage – will it last?

Since the first of the year, Scottie has competed in seven events with an astonishing 43% win percentage. If the same math we used before were applied to the remaining events, the World Golf leader could be looking at an additional six victories and a full trophy case at home. However, if we use only the results from the 2022 events, things could be a little more in Scottie’s favor and lead to some exhilarating golf.

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